Uncertainty Quantification of Earth System Models

The Center for Climate Sciences (CCS) would like to invite you to attend the CCS Friday Seminar Series talk on Friday, May 15, 2020 from 9 am – 10:00 am via WebEx

Speaker: Elias Massoud

Affiliation: JPL

Date: May 15, 2020

Time: 9 am (WebEx)

Title:
“Uncertainty Quantification of Earth System Models”

Abstract for talk:
Climate estimates from Earth System Models (ESMs) are usually accompanied with significant uncertainties, especially for certain locations of the globe. One way to deal with this issue is to use information from observations, such as those obtained from remote sensing, to constrain uncertainties in the spread of ESM ensembles. This talk combines the use of ESMs, observational data from satellites, and advanced numerical methods, to quantify uncertainties in the Earth’s climate system. I will first present a diagnosis of a single model, showing a sensitivity analysis and machine learning case study of the CLM4.5(ED) model (also known as the FATES model). Then, I will showcase how to diagnose a suite of models, such as those in the CMIP archive, and reduce uncertainties in the ensemble spread using Bayesian Model Averaging. Finally, I will discuss recent developments of the Climate Modeling Alliance (CliMA) model, which directly learns from observations and from data generated on demand, and is being developed in a collaboration between Caltech, MIT, the Naval Postgraduate School, and JPL.

Bio:
Elias Massoud is a postdoc at JPL in the Terrestrial Hydrology section working with Dr Duane Waliser and the RCMES group (https://rcmes.jpl.nasa.gov/). He also collaborates closely with Caltech’s Climate Modeling Alliance (https://clima.caltech.edu/). After obtaining his BS and MS degrees in 2011 and 2012 at UCLA, he went on to obtain his PhD in 2017 from UC Irvine. In 2016, he visited the Los Alamos National Laboratory for 6 months, thanks to a research grant from the US Department of Energy. His current research involves the fusion of data from observations and model simulations to assess and predict the state of the Earth.

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WebEx Dial In Information:

Meeting number (access code): 902 253 763

Meeting password: ccsfridayseminar

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